Major emergency!Ukraine shelling disputed eastern region, Europe to fight?Global stock market rapid dive, crude oil and gold pull sharply, hedge prices to?
Global variables increase again!Around noon Beijing time today, Ukraine suddenly struck.Russian-backed forces in a disputed region in eastern Ukraine say Ukrainian government forces have shelled their territory with mortars.Ukraine’s armed forces have fired mortar shells and grenades at four districts in the disputed luhansk Republic (LPR) in the east of the country, Russia’s Sputnik news agency reported.Russia’s State Duma on February 15 adopted a draft resolution calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize the “Luhansk People’s Republic” and “Donetsk People’s Republic” self-proclaimed by rebels in eastern Ukraine in 2014 as sovereign and independent states.The move is controversial.Affected by this, the global stock market accelerated the dive, The Nikkei index fell 1.2% at one time, the nasdaq futures fell more than 1% at one time, fear index VIX futures pulled sharply in the short term, the day rose more than 5.8%, at 25.90.U.S. and Brent oil futures rallied to trade at $93.10 and $94.16, respectively, after rising more than $1.40 in half an hour.International gold prices also soared to near $1,877.The Russian-backed breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine on Thursday accused Kiev government forces of shelling their territory with mortars in violation of an agreement aimed at ending the conflict, RIA Novosti reported.Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and is demanding assurances that NATO will not accept Kiev as a member.Where things go from here depends on how Russia plays its cards.If the Russians make a move, it could make things worse.Afternoon A shares after the opening, also fast diving.The Shanghai Composite Index turned green in 1 minute, China ping an and other blue chips quickly killed.Ukraine’s armed forces began firing mortars and rocket launchers at five thirty Moscow time on February 17 (10:30 Beijing time) in four residential areas of Luhansk, according to the news released by The Russian satellite network quoted by People’s Daily Online.The statement from the Separatists in Luhansk did not mention any casualties.According to Russian media outlet Sputnik, “The attack comes at a time of tension between Russia and NATO, whose members have been claiming that Moscow’s alleged military buildup near Ukraine’s border will lead to an ‘invasion.'”Armed forces in eastern Ukraine say Ukrainian government forces have shelled their territory with mortars, ria Novosti reports.After the news, the global stock market accelerated the dive, the Nikkei index fell 1.2% at one time, nasdaq futures fell more than 1% at one time, fear index VIX futures pulled sharply in the short term, the day up more than 5.8%, at 25.90.U.S. and Brent oil futures rallied to trade at $93.10 and $94.16, respectively, after rising more than $1.40 in half an hour.The DOLLAR Index (DXY) made a big comeback, reversing early losses.At the same time, S&P 500 index futures and Treasury yields suddenly fell, falling 0.20% intraday and as much as 8 basis points (BPS).Risk aversion is likely to be reflected in the bearish prices of AUDUSD and NZDUSD.Gold, back near $1,877 at press time, also appeared to benefit from risk aversion.After the announcement, the representative of the Luhansk region said Ukraine’s armed forces had grossly violated the cease-fire by using heavy weapons.According to the Minsk agreement, heavy weapons should not be used.News also emerged of Russian troops.The press service of Russia’s southern military region told reporters on Monday that nearly 20 warships from the Caspian Sea fleet began exercises in the Caspian Sea.Fleet, according to a press information area nearly 20 warship crews to participate in the exercise, including “dagestan” missile ship, “Olivia, tusk city”, “ap”, “large uz autumn”, “makhachkala,” and “stu skin kuznets” small missile ship, small gunboats, base minesweepers, boat and ship.Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may hold a telephone conference on Thursday, According to Kyodo News agency.The Russian-backed breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine on Thursday accused Kiev government forces of shelling their territory with mortars in violation of an agreement aimed at ending the conflict, RIA Novosti reported.Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and is demanding assurances that NATO will not accept Kiev as a member.An escalation of the years-long conflict with Separatists in Donbas could increase tensions between Russia and the West.It is worth noting that the West has been incredulous of yesterday’s withdrawal.A US Air Force F-35 fighter jet arrives at spangdahlem Air Base in Germany on February 16, local time.”These deployments are being made in full coordination with host countries and NATO military authorities and, while temporary in nature, are prudent measures to enhance preparedness and strengthen NATO’s collective defense during this period of uncertainty,” according to a statement from THE US Air Forces in Europe.Late Wednesday local time, a senior biden administration official told reporters that no Russian troops had withdrawn from the border with Ukraine, casting doubt on Moscow’s claim that it was withdrawing some troops.”We now know it was false,” the official said, adding that up to 7,000 soldiers had joined the 150,000 near the border in recent days.Irreconcilable contradictions?According to Nikkei China, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russians and Ukrainians belong to the same nation in an article titled “On the Historical Identity of Russians and Ukrainians” published in July 2021.”We are one family,” Putin said in a 2013 speech in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital.There are also native Russian speakers in Ukraine, and the Crimean peninsula is predominantly ethnic Russian.Even so, Ukrainians are widely seen as different from Russians.Mr. Putin seems fixated on his mission to reintegrate Ukraine, which became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union.Russia, Ukraine, and belarus are all east Slavic nations. As a unified country, they started with KievanRus, which rose in the 9th to 12th centuries.The core was in what is now Kiev.Later, Ukraine, as it is today, was ruled by the Russian Empire, Poland and Lithuania.In the Middle Ages, the Cossacks, a free armed group, began to fight for independence and statehood in Ukraine.To fight Poland to the west, the Cossacks signed an agreement with Russia and were once protected by Russia.Russia and Poland fought over Ukraine, and in 1667 they agreed to partition it.The “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine in early 2004 and 2005 led to the establishment of a pro-European and Pro-American government in protest of the presidential election, which was won by a Pro-Russian candidate.In 2014, Russia unilaterally annexed the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine and invaded the eastern part of The country with a large ethnic Russian population as pro-European and Pro-Russian groups overpowered the Pro-Russian regime.Russia sees the problem as the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is led by the U.S. and Western Europe.According to Russia’s interpretation, the United States and Europe made a verbal commitment not to expand NATO when east and West Germany were reunited in 1990.In December 2021, Putin deemed the promise broken, saying it had been “seriously deceived” and expressing years of rancor.Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999, and Romania, Slovenia, the Three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), Bulgaria and Slovakia joined NATO in 2004.The United States also supported NATO membership for the sake of assisting these countries in their transition to democratic market economies.Former Soviet Union members Ukraine and Georgia have also raised the goal of joining NATO.The Putin government’s sense of crisis has grown that its rival NATO is closing in on Russia’s borders.Putin’s government strongly opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, a regional power with a population of more than 40 million, calling it “a red line.”By massing more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, Russia has brought the U.S. and Europe to the negotiating table and demanded that Ukraine be banned from joining NATO.Editor: Wang Yunpeng